New this year!
MySchools now projects for each applicant if they have a low, medium, or high chance of getting an offer to high school programs. This gives families more information about the estimated chance of getting an offer to each program of interest, making it easier for them to build a balanced application.
How it works:
MySchools uses information about each applicant and each high school program to show the predicted chances of getting an offer. This information includes:
- A program’s admissions priorities (for example, a borough priority)
- The number of seats at each program
- An applicants screened admissions group, and Ed. Opt. group
- An applicant’s random number
- Whether an applicant counts towards general education seats or students with disabilities seats
Please note: there was an initial implementation issue with the seat availability at NYC Lab School for Collaborative Studies and Millenium High School, which resulted in some families seeing an incorrect chance of offer at these two schools. Seats at these two programs were corrected, and the chance of offers were corrected as well. Some families are now seeing a higher chance, and some families are seeing a lower chance.
Because of the change in seats at these two programs, a small percentage of families will see their chance of an offer change at other programs. This is not due to a change in seats at other programs, but due to a ripple effect stemming from the adjustment at Lab and Millenium.
Families all now see correct chance of offer information in MySchools, and can use this information to complete or edit their high school application through the extended deadline of December 9.
Where can I see this information?
When a high school applicant starts their application in MySchools they will be able to see their predicted chance of getting an offer in two places: the search page and the application builder. Next to each program, an applicant will see three bars that show the estimated chance of that applicant getting an offer to that program.
The chance each student sees is specific to that student and program! This means different students may see different chances for the same program.
A "high” icon showing three orange bars means that a student has a high chance of receiving an offer to this program. A student is expected to have a 99% chance of receiving an offer to a program that shows three bars.
A “medium” icon showing two orange bars means that the student has a medium chance of receiving an offer to this program. About half of students are expected to receive an offer to a program that shows two bars.
A "low” icon showing one orange bar means that a student has a low chance of receiving an offer to this program. A student is expected to have a 1% chance of receiving an offer to a program that shows three bars.
There are some programs where there is not enough information for MySchools to show the chances of getting an offer. At these programs, the hover-over description shows details about who got offers in each priority group last year.
Programs with the following admissions methods do not have enough information to show the predicted chance of an offer:
- Audition: students must submit an audition and are admitted based on their audition score.
- Screened with Assessment: students must complete an assessment, which determines admission.
- Language: Criteria: programs consider students’ English Proficiency and/or home language after the application closes.
- Transfer (for over-aged and under-credited students): students are ranked by the school based on a student’s grades, age, or credit accumulation after the application closes.
- ASD / ACES / D75 inclusion: students must be deemed eligible to apply by the Special Education Office.
How can I build a balanced application?
A balanced application includes programs representing different chances of admissions, including some programs where you have a high chance of getting an offer.
For example, imagine an 8th grader named Jordan who has searched MySchools and found programs she likes based on the schools' academics and how close they are to her home. She adds these programs to her application:
- four low-chance programs,
- one medium-chance program,
- and one high-chance program.
Jordan only has six programs on her application, and she has a low-chance of matching to most of them. That’s okay, but Jordan should go back to the application and find six additional programs to add to her application. She should include some additional high-chance programs, and as many more medium- or low-chance programs as she wants in her true preference order.
Should I include programs where I have a low chance of receiving an offer?
If you want to apply to programs where you have a low predicted chance of getting an offer, you should absolutely include them on your application. But, you should also be sure to include some additional programs where you have a medium and high chance of getting an offer.
Do I need to include 12 programs on the application?
It is not required, but it’s recommended to list 12 or more programs on the application, including some programs where you have a high chance of getting an offer. In last year’s application process 98% of students who listed 12 programs got an offer to one of their choices. Families who list fewer programs on the application are less likely to get an offer to a school on their application.
How should I rank choices on the application?
It is important to list programs in your true order of preference with your first choice as #1, second choice as #2, and so on. Let’s say your most preferred school is a school that you have a predicted low chance of getting an offer to – you should still list it as #1! While it may be unlikely you’ll get an offer there, there is no harm in putting it at the top of your application. If you don’t get in, it will not affect your chances of getting an offer to the other schools on your application.
I’m in the first priority group for a program. Why do I have a predicted low or medium chance of receiving an offer?
Some high school programs have very high demand, with many more applicants than available seats even in the first priority group. In these cases the program was not able to accommodate all applicants in the first priority group last year.
Am I guaranteed an offer to a program where I have a predicted high chance of getting an offer?
It is very likely but not guaranteed that you will get an offer. This is why we recommend applying to multiple programs at which you have an expected high chance of getting an offer.
How is the predicted chance of receiving an offer to each program calculated?
MySchools provides a probability of admission for each student and each program. It is based on the number of available seats, a program’s admission rules (e.g., priorities), application patterns from last year’s admissions process, and each student’s individual characteristics. More specifically, MySchools considers all student characteristics that affect a student’s chance of receiving an offer, which includes*:
- General Education / Students with Disabilities status
- Screened admissions group based on 7th grade course grades
- Ed Opt category (low / medium / high)
- Diversity in Admissions characteristics
- Free and reduced price lunch eligibility (if parent consents)
- English Language Learner status
- Students in temporary housing
- Current school
- Zoned school (if the student’s address has a zoned school),
- Borough of residence
- Borough of attendance
- Random number
*A student characteristic is only considered for programs that use that specific characteristic in their admissions criteria. For example, a student’s borough of residence will only be used to predict a student’s chance of an offer to a program that prioritizes students from a certain borough.
Economists affiliated with MIT’s Blueprint Labs re-ran last year’s admissions match 1,000 times, each time with a small change to reflect natural variations to application patterns. Every combination of student characteristics was analyzed for how many times out of 1,000 they got an offer to each program. That percentage is being used in this year’s process to determine the chance of getting an offer.
Since these predictions are based on historical enrollment trends, variations are possible; we do not know how this new feature will affect the application decisions of families this year. This feature is offered as a tool to help families understand which programs may be competitive for their children based on past data. Although this feature should help predict your child’s likelihood of admission, it offers no guarantee of actual results.